Primary voters are unrepresentative, inconsistent and very powerful
The last 2026 primary elections were held on Sept. 15 in Delaware. Although totals are not yet available, there is evidence that turnout was higher than in most prior election years.
This year’s primaries were also the most competitive in recent history; 13 congressional incumbents were defeated, the largest number since the 1950s other than the years when redistricting forced some incumbents to run against each other.
Primary competition is often a predictor of general election competition. In wave election years, as this year is expected to be, the party that gains seats in Congress often had more competitive primaries, a consequence of the increase in candidates seeking nomination and the enthusiasm of voters. This year, that competition bodes well for Democrats.
The story the 2026 primaries tell about democracy, however, is less rosy. The 2026 primaries were held on 21 dates, from March to September. State turnout levels varied substantially, and in many states it appears that politically moderate voters stayed home. Some states, such as Maine and Michigan, had heated battles in marquee races, while other states, such as Connecticut, had virtually no competition.
From my perspective as a political scientist, each of these facts represents a problem for democracy. If the purpose of primaries is to allow each party’s voters an opportunity to choose candidates, the 2026 primaries – like primaries in most years – did not achieve those goals. In fact, their outcomes represented the views of a small group of people who turn out inconsistently and often do not even represent the views of the parties’ voters, to say nothing of the general public.
My recent book, “The Problem with Primary........
