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Stefan Wolff

Stefan Wolff

The Conversation

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Ukraine war: as 2025 approaches, Kyiv is left with few good options and allies in a Trump 2.0 world

Messages emerging from Moscow and Brussels are that nothing short of victory will do. But a new Trump administration could change all this.

19.12.2024 2

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Trump wants China’s help in making peace in Ukraine. He’s unlikely to get it

President Xi is unlikely to see any benefit from working with Donald Trump on peace negotiations for the Ukraine war.

13.12.2024 3

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

What the fall of Assad says about Putin’s ambitions for Russia’s great-power  status

The fall of one of Putin’s key client regimes in the Middle East has diminished Russia’s power and status.

12.12.2024 5

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Russia and Ukraine face off at European security conference as all sides wait for Trump presidency

The OSCE is the only regional security forum where Ukraine and Russia still meet.

11.12.2024 7

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: polls show most Ukrainians now support a negotiated peace as Russian advances continue

The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture. Kyiv has been given permission to use western-supplied Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles against targets...

25.11.2024 5

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: polls show most Ukrainians would support a negotiated peace as Russian advances continue

The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture. Kyiv has been given permission to use western-supplied Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles against targets...

25.11.2024 5

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine: after 1,000 days of war, Europe must prepare for a Trump-brokered peace deal by asserting its own interests

Since Donald Trump was reelected on November 5, speculation about what his presidency will mean for the war in Ukraine, which has now entered its...

18.11.2024 4

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Trump, Xi and Putin: a dysfunctional love triangle with stakes of global significance

Reports of a phone call between the US president-elect, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin (although quickly denied by the...

11.11.2024 7

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

What Trump’s victory means for Ukraine, the Middle East, China and the rest of the world

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, combined with a Republican-led US Senate and House of Representatives was widely feared...

06.11.2024 20

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Maia Sandu’s victory in second round of Moldovan election show’s limits to Moscow’s meddling

Following a campaign marred by widespread and credible allegations of massive interference by Russia and pro-Russian proxies, Moldova’s incumbent...

04.11.2024 8

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Russia’s Brics summit shows determination for a new world order – but internal rifts will buy the west some time

The recent Brics summit in the Russian city of Kazan was less notable for what happened at the meeting than for what happened before, on the margins,...

25.10.2024 9

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Moldova votes on whether to join EU as Russia intensifies vast disinformation campaign

Moldova is emerging as a major strategic battleground in a fierce competition between Russia and the west. A Kremlin-backed disinformation campaign...

15.10.2024 3

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine faces worsening odds on the battlefield and a struggle on the diplomatic front after Biden postpones summit

In May 2023, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, embarked on a whistle-stop tour of European capitals to shore up support from his western...

14.10.2024 6

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: Zelensky’s pleas for help are getting drowned out in the clamour from the Middle East

While Russia continues its nuclear sabre rattling, with renewed threats to use its arsenal if attacked, fighting on the frontlines in Ukraine and in...

26.09.2024 9

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

How the west is foiling Russia’s attempts to use the Arctic in the Ukraine war

Things are not exactly going to plan for Moscow in the Arctic – an area that is a strategic military region for Russia and has significant economic...

12.09.2024 6

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Pro-Putin movement expands across the former Soviet bloc – here’s why

As Russia keeps pounding Ukrainian cities with airstrikes and advances along the frontline in Donbas, regional elections in two states in eastern...

04.09.2024 7

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: away from the battlefield the diplomatic wrangling hots up with Modi visit to Kyiv

Ukraine’s three-week incursion has been countered recently by an intensifying Russian drone campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure. Russian...

27.08.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine’s Kursk incursion: how the invasion of Russia could change the political focus of the conflict

The Ukrainian operation in Russia’s Kursk region began in late July with several days of airstrikes before Kyiv’s ground forces quickly advanced...

15.08.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

One-third of Ukrainians would give up land for peace – but it’s not as simple as that

According to a recent opinion poll taken by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, almost one third of Ukrainians are now prepared to make...

31.07.2024 4

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

A Trump-Vance White House could undermine European security – and end up pushing Russia and China closer

Donald Trump’s choice of Ohio senator J.D. Vance as his running mate in the presidential election has reignited European fears of American...

18.07.2024 6

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Xi and Putin talk up growth of their Eurasian bloc organisation as counterweight to Nato

At Nato’s 75th anniversary summit there has been, as you’d expect, a lot of attention on Russia’s war against Ukraine. It’s undoubtedly the...

09.07.2024 5

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: Kyiv rejects Orbán ceasefire plan but global security deals offer hope

Ukraine has firmly ruled out any compromises in its war with Russia, according to a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Andriy Yermak, the...

03.07.2024 8

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine summit fails to provide a path to peace for Kyiv and its allies

Was the the first so-called “Summit on Peace in Ukraine”, held in Switzerland on June 15 to 16, a failure? Certainly not, if you listen to the...

18.06.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Why Vladimir Putin seems stronger now than he was a year ago

Vladmir Putin appears far stronger now than he did at any other time since Russia launched a full-scale invasion into Ukrainian territory in February...

23.05.2024 20

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: battlefield setbacks stir Kyiv’s European allies into taking a tougher line on Russia

Two weeks after the US president, Joe Biden, signed off on a US$60 billion (£50 billion) package of military aid to Kyiv, the impact on the...

09.05.2024 30

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: US$60 billion in US military aid a major morale boost but no certain path to victory

It took months of delays and desperate pleas from Ukraine, but the US House of Representatives has finally passed a bill authorising US$60 billion...

22.04.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: $60 billion in US military aid a major morale boost but no certain path to victory

It took months of delays and desperate pleas from Ukraine, but the US House of Representatives has finally passed a bill authorising US$60 billion...

22.04.2024 20

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

China’s new world order: looking for clues from Xi’s recent meetings with foreign leaders

There is broad consensus that Chinese foreign policy has become more assertive and more centralised in the decade since Xi Jinping has ascended to the...

19.04.2024 30

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine is losing the war and the west faces a stark choice: help now or face a resurgent and aggressive Russia

Ukraine is now experiencing a level of existential threat comparable only to the situation immediately after the full-scale Russian invasion in...

17.04.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Xi and Biden spoke on the phone for 105 minutes: what does this say about their relationship?

US president, Joe Biden, and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jingping, talked on the phone this week for the first time since meeting in November. While...

04.04.2024 20

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Moldova: Russia continues its mischief-making in breakaway Transnistria

In mid-February, the leader of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, summoned deputies “of all levels of the...

28.03.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: ten years after Putin annexed Crimea, Russia’s grip on the peninsula looks shaky

It is ten years since Russia illegally annexed Crimea on March 18 2014. Subsequent efforts to firmly integrate the peninsula into the Russian...

15.03.2024 20

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: the west is at a crossroads – double down on aid to Kyiv, accept a compromise deal, or face humiliation by Russia

In the summer and autumn of 2022, there was much discussion about finding an “off-ramp” to allow Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, a...

20.02.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: Kyiv needs a fundamental rethink of its strategy, not just a reshuffle of military leadership

The recent replacement of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces may have put a temporary end to the increasingly public...

12.02.2024 7

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: corruption scandals and high-level rifts could become an existential threat as Kyiv asks for more military aid

The latest revelations about corruption in Ukraine tell a complex story. A scandal has engulfed the Ukrainian ministry of defence, where 100,000...

01.02.2024 30

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: talk of Russian spring offensive raises fears that Kyiv is ill-prepared to face it

Analysis suggests that Russia may be in the early stages of a new offensive in Ukraine. On the ground, Moscow’s forces have intensified their...

18.01.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war increasingly seen as ‘fought by the poor’, as Zelensky raises taxes and proposes strict mobilisation laws

After the failure of Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive, Kyiv finds itself at a major crossroads and with no easy options. The demand late last year...

04.01.2024 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: Kyiv digs in for the long haul with prospects looking bleak for 2024

Almost two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there are no signs of a military victory for either side. Nor are there...

21.12.2023 20

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine: opening EU accession talks is an important boost for Zelensky despite Orbán’s obstruction

Hungarian prime minister, Victor Orban, threw a major tantrum at the European Council meeting in Brussels on December 14 2023. Essentially doing the...

15.12.2023 10

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: stakes are high for EU and Ukraine ahead of crucial European summit

When the EU’s heads of state and government come together in Brussels for their final European Council meeting of the year on December 14 and 15,...

11.12.2023 30

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

Ukraine war: Russia’s hard line at European security meeting ratchets up tensions another notch

After many months of diplomatic wrangling, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) was granted another lease of life at the...

05.12.2023 3

The Conversation

Stefan Wolff

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