Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began this war. But assigning responsibility for how the war started is different from determining how it can end.

After more than four years of fighting, the central question is no longer whether either side can impose a perfect outcome. It is whether a settlement can change the strategic calculation that keeps the war alive.

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The war will end only when both sides conclude that returning to war is more costly than preserving the peace.

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That calculation is becoming harder to ignore.

Ukraine is paying the more immediate human and physical price. Russian attacks continue to damage cities, ports, energy systems, transportation networks, and industrial capacity. The strain of prolonged war continues to weigh on Ukraine’s economy, while attacks on Black Sea infrastructure threaten one of the country’s most important export lifelines.

Russia is paying a different price.

Ukraine has increasingly pushed the war deeper into Russian territory by targeting refineries, oil infrastructure, ports, logistics networks, and military facilities. Those attacks have disrupted energy and transportation systems and demonstrated that the war can no longer remain distant from Russian territory.

Neither........

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