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Export-Led Growth Or Fiscal Self-Harm?

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The joint recommendations presented on May 12, 2026, by the country’s leading textile and export associations to the Federal Finance Minister, Minister of State for Finance and senior officials of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) should not be misunderstood as another sectoral lobbying exercise seeking concessions or subsidies. They represent a broader warning from Pakistan’s productive economy that the present fiscal and industrial structure has become increasingly incompatible with export competitiveness, industrial expansion and long-term economic stability.

For nearly three decades, Pakistan’s export-oriented sectors survived despite structural weaknesses because a predictable framework, though imperfect, still existed. Exporters of goods operated under the Final Tax Regime (FTR), where one per cent of gross export proceeds was deducted at source, constituted full and final discharge of tax liability. That framework minimised uncertainty, ensured liquidity and allowed exporters to concentrate on production and market expansion rather than perpetual litigation and refund accumulation.

The Finance Act 2024 fundamentally altered that structure. Export taxation shifted from facilitation to advanced revenue extraction. The transition from FTR towards the Normal Tax Regime (NTR), combined with Minimum Tax Regime (MTR) exposure, super tax, advance turnover taxes and refund-linked withholding structures, has transformed taxation into a mechanism of liquidity confiscation.

The consequences are now visible across the industrial landscape. Large export-oriented manufacturers face a cumulative effective burden that, according to the industry presentation, may exceed 68 per cent once corporate tax, super tax, Workers Welfare Fund (WWF), Workers Profit Participation Fund (WPPF), Provincial Employees Social Security Institution (PESSI) contributions and advance taxes are aggregated. No regional competitor imposes such punitive extraction upon exporters. Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, India and Uzbekistan all maintain significantly lower and more rational industrial tax structures.

The issue is not whether exporters should pay taxes. Every organised sector must contribute fairly towards public finance. The real issue is whether taxation is designed to promote production or to maximise upfront extraction irrespective of economic consequences. Pakistan’s policymakers appear increasingly trapped within a dangerous illusion: that industrial growth can be sacrificed temporarily to achieve short-term revenue targets.

This assumption is economically disastrous. Sustainable revenues emerge from expanding production, exports and incomes, not from exhausting the liquidity of already documented sectors while vast areas of speculative and informal wealth remain undertaxed.

The presentation made on May 12, 2026, correctly identifies the central contradiction. Pakistan desperately requires export-led growth to stabilise its balance of payments, generate employment and reduce dependence upon external borrowing. Yet state policy increasingly........

© The Friday Times