In the lead-up to the release of the National Defence Strategy (NDS) this week, the Albanese government has announced it will spend an additional A$2–5 billion on drones and counter-drone systems.

This will bring total spending on uncrewed and autonomous systems to A$12–15 billion over the decade to 2035–36.

With this announcement, the government is apparently learning from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East how best to prepare for the future of warfare.

What is emerging is not simply a technological shift in military capabilities, but a structural one: recognising the growing importance of cost, scale and domestic industrial capacity in determining military effectiveness.

The rapid evolution of drone warfare

The origins of this dynamic lie in Iran’s development of mass-produced offensive drones, which cost US$20,000–$50,000 (A$28,000–70,000) each, depending on the model.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has supplied it with both Shahed drones (known locally as Geran) and production expertise, enabling Moscow to swarm the skies over Ukraine.

This has forced both sides into a rapid process of adaptation, focused less on maximising performance and more on reducing cost and increasing production volume.

Ukraine has quickly become a world leader in drone technology. Last year, it announced it would produce around four million drones, about double its production of the previous year. It has also developed a layered defence system capable of defending against swarms of Russian drones.

While both Russia and Ukraine initially focused on........

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