DUBLIN’S OFFICE MARKET has attracted considerable commentary in recent months, much of it anchored to a single figure: the headline vacancy rate.

At 18.6%, it looks alarming. It has prompted warnings, headlines and no shortage of speculation about whether recovery is real or merely wishful thinking from those with a vested interest in saying so.

We understand the scepticism. But the headline vacancy rate, taken in isolation, is one of the most misleading figures in Irish commercial real estate right now. Not because it is wrong, but because it treats an increasingly fragmented market as if it were a single, uniform product. Across outlets and commentators, the same number gets cited, the same conclusion gets drawn, and the same important distinctions get missed.

What the data actually shows

Eighteen months ago, Savills said that vacancy rates in certain city centre locations would fall sharply. Dublin 2, and specifically Core D2, the area in proximity to St Stephen’s Green, was the location we identified.

That is exactly what has happened.

Prime rents rose 4% year-on-year to reach €65 per sq ft in Q4 2025, the highest level ever recorded, driven by strong occupier interest and substantial pre-let activity. We also forecast that rents for future delivery of pre-let stock in this area would rise to €75 to €80 per sq ft, reflecting the availability gap created by rising building costs and interest rates since Covid, similar to what happened after the financial crisis.

Based on transactions we are currently involved in, we believe that the forecast is about to be proven. People operating in this market in real time see a very different picture than those working from historical aggregated data alone.

The vacancy rate is not what you think it is

A significant proportion of what counts as vacant space in Dublin is, in practical terms, unlettable. These are older, secondary buildings that fall well short of the ESG standards now required by occupiers.

Companies across Ireland are legally required to report their carbon footprint annually. Many cannot sign a lease on a building that does not meet minimum energy and sustainability........

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