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What If Alberta Votes to Stay—and the Separatists Don’t Care?

How a referendum defeat could lay the groundwork for American intervention

In my previous life as an analyst, part my job was war-game design, scenario building, and adjudication. This involved recognizing threats, weaknesses, and understanding how red (i.e. hostile) forces think and operate.

Thanks to this, I perceive a direct threat to Canada from today’s referendum on Alberta secession. My analysis is based on my understandings of United States, Canadian, and Russian Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs); politics; national goals; and the personalities involved in decision making.

The following describes something that could happen, rather than what will happen. Nevertheless, it represents a real danger. All that’s needed is for the US to decide to try to make it happen. I am writing this analysis so that people can recognize the threat, and signs that it is occurring, if malign actors decide to enact it.

Most war-game scenarios begin by stating the “known knows,” i.e., the current conditions that drive projected future actions of the various actors within the game.

US president Donald Trump has made it clear that he desires Canada to become either the fifty-first state or a dependent state with limited sovereignty similar to Russia’s vassal state Belarus. It appears that this is motivated by his desire for oil. The US operation to capture Nicolás Maduro had the same goal, and the ensuing decision to leave Delcy Rodriguez in power was based on her willingness to cede rights to Venezuelan oil reserves and their revenue to the US and US-based corporations.

Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, at 303 billion barrels. Canada is fourth, at 163 billion. Between 95 and 97 percent of these Canadian reserves are located in Albertan tar sands.

Alberta separatists have obtained the necessary signatures to hold a referendum to determine whether they are allowed to hold a referendum on independence from Canada. This circumlocution is designed to work around the court’s requirement for First Nations involvement in such a decision.

The funding sources for Alberta separatist groups are murky; the Alberta Prosperity Project refuses to disclose their donors, claiming they are “private.” Separatist leaders like Jeff Rath have gone on conservative American media outlets, like Fox News, to make their case to American conservatives, begging American public and governmental support for secession. Their blueprint for secession (The Value of Freedom) makes it clear that they plan on switching to the US dollar, with all the economic entanglements that entails. Their plan for secession and independence is viewed by most experts as unworkable, leaving annexation by the US as the lone viable path to independence from the Canadian government while remaining a functional state.

The separatists have received significant aid and support from foreign actors, primarily US and Russian. A May 2026 report, Decision Making & National Unity Under Threat: Foreign Interference, Cognitive Sovereignty, and the Alberta Referendum, was published by DisinfoWatch, the Global Centre for Democratic Resilience, and CASiLabs. It found that “the ability of Canadians to make political decisions freely, without foreign coercion or manipulation . . . is being actively contested by foreign actors seeking to shape Canada’s democratic future. Three distinct actor types exploiting the Alberta separatist debate are in focus: Russia, the United States, and economic opportunists using AI.”

Separatist leaders have reportedly engaged in secret talks with senior members of the Trump administration, including some at the Department of State and the Treasury. Discussions included a potential $500 million line of credit, taxes, pensions, and the use of US currency.

Russian influence has been more covert. It has focused on online content pushing misleading headlines, articles, and false narratives, the vast majority of which were by Russian-linked participants. Russia’s goal is to destabilize Canada by supporting separatists, using disinformation and agitation of Albertans online.

They are also posing as “grassroots” activists supporting secession. This strategy is known as “Astroturfing,” simulating a seemingly larger separatist movement. They use bot farms and AI-generated “slopaganda” on YouTube to stoke grievances and outrage at transgender people and immigrants and at Ottawa for not pursuing a “drill baby, drill” environmental policy.

Russia’s motivation in this is the same as it’s always been: foment chaos in the West to weaken opposition to Russian actions elsewhere, whether it is Vietnam, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Europe, or Iran. Wired’s Brian Barrett described the goal of Russian disinformation attempts directed against democracies: “The point has always been to find democracy’s loose seams, and pull.” The rhetorical TTPs they use have been described as the “firehose of falsehood.”

The firehose of falsehood is a modern propaganda and disinformation tactic that bombards people with a massive, continuous, and repetitive stream of untruths........

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