For decades, Cuba survived not because its economic model succeeded, but because its political system proved unusually durable under pressure. Sanctions, diplomatic isolation, the collapse of the Soviet Union and repeated waves of exile failed to dislodge the Communist state built after 1959. Yet the latest American moves against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro suggest Washington now believes the balance may finally be shifting. The significance of the indictment is not merely legal.

It marks a psychological escalation. By targeting one of the last surviving figures of the Cuban Revolution, the United States is signalling that it no longer sees Havana simply as an adversarial government, but as a political order whose historical legitimacy can be directly challenged. The message is aimed not only at Cuba’s leadership, but also at military elites, bureaucratic insiders and sections of the population exhausted by years of economic decline. The temptation in Washington will be to believe that history is approaching a decisive moment. Cuba today faces severe fuel shortages, recurring blackouts, inflation and worsening migration pressures.

Younger Cubans increasingly view ideology........

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