President Donald Trump came remarkably close on Sunday to ordering US strikes against Yemen's Houthis. According to The New York Times, military commanders had approved target lists and bombs were being loaded onto American warplanes when Trump changed his mind. For now, there will be no US strikes. The decision followed another appeal from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who had asked Trump to help stop the rapidly advancing Houthis. Trump initially instructed the Pentagon to prepare for strikes, only to reverse himself days later. Washington will continue intelligence and other assistance, but Saudi Arabia remains largely on its own in fighting the most powerful surviving Iranian proxy. This is an extraordinary outcome of a war that began with US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. Saudi Arabia did not start it, opposed its expansion and exercised strategic patience to keep itself and the GCC outside it. Seven months later, Israel is largely watching, America has stepped back, and Saudi Arabia is fighting the Houthis.

The irony goes further. Washington and the Houthis are in direct communication. Senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has confirmed that his movement assured the Trump administration that it would not attack American vessels. The Houthis, however, explicitly excluded what he called the “Saudi enemy” from that assurance. This follows the Oman-mediated understanding under which the Houthis stopped attacking American ships and the United States ended its bombing campaign against them. Washington thus has an arrangement protecting its own vessels, while Saudi ships, territory and infrastructure remain legitimate Houthi targets.

Mohammed bin Salman had spent months trying to avoid precisely this situation. Saudi Arabia had wound down its earlier Yemen intervention, restored relations with Iran and concentrated national energies on Vision 2030. Even after the Iran war began, Riyadh resisted being dragged into it and sought to prevent the GCC from becoming another theatre of confrontation. That restraint eventually reached its limits. The Saudi-Houthi truce unravelled in July after Saudi-backed forces struck Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian aircraft from landing, saying it was carrying weapons for the Houthis. Fighting subsequently intensified, and Houthi forces expanded along Yemen's Red Sea coast towards the strategically vital Bab al-Mandab.

The war has now reached Saudi territory again. Missiles and drones have targeted Riyadh, Saudi energy installations and other strategic sites. Pakistan strongly condemned even a Houthi drone attack targeting Makkah on September 16, describing it as a violation of Saudi sovereignty and an affront to Muslims worldwide. The consequences extend far beyond Yemen. Iran has already severely constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis can now exert pressure around Bab al-Mandab, the second maritime gateway connecting Gulf and Asian commerce with the Red Sea and Suez.

The figures are alarming. Before the February war, around 125 large commercial vessels crossed Hormuz daily. Only 17 commodity vessels crossed during the latest weekend. Traffic through Bab al-Mandab has also fallen, while no visible Saudi oil loadings from Yanbu were recorded after September 16. Pressure is therefore mounting simultaneously........

© The Friday Times