Trans-Pacific View | Diplomacy | East Asia

After the Midterms: What Xi and Trump Should Discuss in Shenzhen

The midterm results don’t change the topics that should lead the agenda for the Trump-Xi summit in Shenzhen. 

U.S. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China arrive via the Cross Hall to a State Arrival ceremony on the State Floor of the White House, Sep. 24, 2026.

The United States’ 2026 midterm elections delivered a divided government. Democrats won the House of Representative decisively – roughly 30 seats flipped, in all favor of Democrats – and captured the Senate, gaining seven seats across states like Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine. Two weeks from now, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will meet in Shenzhen on the margins of APEC –first encounter since the midterm results and the last leaders’ meeting of the year.

In Washington, the dominant reading of the past year is that the trade war was overplayed and is now being walked back. Similarly, Beijing tends to view renewed engagement as a sign that China has successfully endured U.S. pressure. In May we warned against precisely this habit – treating engagement after escalation as a concession. 

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The United States’ 2026 midterm elections delivered a divided government. Democrats won the House of Representative decisively – roughly 30 seats flipped, in all favor of Democrats – and captured the Senate, gaining seven seats across states like Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine. Two weeks from now, Xi........

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