Of all the political parties contesting New Zealand’s looming general election, one seems to be generating more buzz than almost any other.

That’s The Opportunity Party (TOP), whose recent polling surge has drawn no shortage of media analysis – to the point we’re seeing commentary on commentary.

The most recent 1News/Verian poll put the party on 4.6% support, edging it closer to the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. The latest Roy Morgan poll had the party over the line at 6.5%.

Whether TOP can get there on November 7’s election remains to be seen. But its rise raises important questions about the election campaign – and the flavour of the next government.

What’s behind the hype?

TOP’s climbing popularity might reflect dissatisfaction with New Zealand’s increasingly fractious politics, concern about the country’s direction, and a desire for policy over culture wars.

The potential for generational change might also appeal, particularly to younger voters dismayed at the prospect of 81-year-old Winston Peters, of populist New Zealand First, again playing kingmaker after the election.

TOP appears to be capitalising on the electoral space left by the steady erosion of support for the country’s two major parties: the ruling centre-right National and centre-left challengers........

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