Transcript: Trump Tailspins as GOP Leaks Humiliating Truth: He’s Toxic

As Republicans reveal fresh angst over the elections, a veteran political handicapper explains why he’s surprised at how bad a situation Trump’s cratering numbers have created for them.

The following is a lightly edited transcript of the September 8 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.

Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.

Donald Trump’s tailspinning continues. A striking analysis from CNN shows Trump’s approval is lower right now than many previous presidents’ numbers were just before the midterms. Meanwhile, new leaks are exposing fresh GOP panic about Trump’s unpopularity, and we’re also learning that Trump world itself seems to be bracing for a big loss. All of which raises a question: Are conventional midterm patterns reasserting themselves, even at a time when Trump has upended our politics so dramatically?

We’re really lucky to be talking about it all with veteran political handicapper Charlie Cook, who has a new piece on his Substack on why the GOP is in such a tough position this cycle. Charlie, thanks so much for coming on.

Charlie Cook: Thanks for having me on, Greg.

Sargent: Let’s start with this CNN analysis. Using an average of polls and CNN’s own polls, it finds Trump’s approval right now at 35 percent. By contrast, Biden was at 41 percent before the 2022 midterms, Obama was at 43 percent in 2014 and at 50 percent in 2010, and George W. Bush was at 41 percent in 2006 and 66 percent in 2002, which was just after 9/11. By this metric, Trump’s the lowest of this millennium, Charlie. What do you make of all that?

Cook: Well, my guess is he’s more like 37, 38, 39, 40. But still, your point’s still valid. Midterm election dynamics happen for a reason, and that is, you get two years into a presidency, and people in the president’s party are generally lethargic. They may be satisfied, but obviously sometimes they’re just not terribly motivated. The other side’s on fire, particularly in this era of hyperpartisanship. And the pure independents are really, really fickle, and tend to get buyer’s remorse. So that’s sort of the normal stuff.

You look at what Bill Clinton had done prior to ‘94, what George W. Bush had done prior to 2006, what Barack Obama had done prior to 2010—you could take all that combined and not quite get the level of sort of radioactivity that you see with many of the things that President Trump has done. And so it shouldn’t be surprising.

Sargent: Yes, it’s a whole bunch of structural factors plus Donald Trump, basically. I think that’s the size of it, right?

Cook: Yeah. I mean, you take Iran—after promising no more wars and all that—but fuel, fertilizer, no more wars, you take tariffs, and all this goes to the heart of his base, of, you know, small-town, rural, farm, all of that. Redecorating the White House in Washington, self-aggrandizement, alienating allies, depleting military stockpiles. I mean, it’s just, like, all coming together. But it’s manifesting itself in places that you wouldn’t have expected.

Sargent: So Politico reports that Republicans are really nervous about how badly Trump is dragging them down, and they’re leaking word that they’re in a bind. They can’t get distanced from Trump without risking alienating Trump and MAGA voters, who they already need to be more energized this fall, but they can’t get too close to Trump because he’s too toxic. And a lot of those MAGA voters, as you alluded to, are already very discouraged.

You had a good line in your piece: a critical mass of factors. Men and MAGA—a lot of men, men not wanting to pay big bucks for gas for their big vehicles, rural voters hurt by fertilizer costs, and so forth. It all piles on top of each other. Charlie, I think the basic point here is Republicans can’t count on their base this time, which makes it even harder to talk to the middle. Can you explain all this?

Cook: Yeah. I mean, bases, as I talked about a little while ago, bases are always hard. But to have the people that are generally the most enthusiastic for you........

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