Suddenly, polls show the Democrats in sight of taking the Senate in the midterms

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Suddenly, the Democrats are within sight of taking the Senate at the midterms 

The price of gasoline is at $4.47 per gallon, on average, across the U.S. Diesel is at $6.52. There’s no end in sight to the conflict with Iran. And President Trump is waging a war of choice against various TV networks. In that context, it is perhaps unsurprising that there has been an abrupt shift in voters' mood over the last few days, ahead of the midterm elections in the U.S.

The prediction forums Kalshi and Polymarket now both show that bettors believe the Democrats will take the House and the Senate. Kalshi gives the Democrats a 61% chance of taking the Senate. Previously, it was neck and neck. Most pollsters predicted the Dems would secure the House, but Republicans would narrowly hold the senior chamber:

Likewise, Polymarket now gives the Dems a 65% chance of taking the Senate:

Real Clear Politics’ generic congressional vote tracker shows the Democrats have an 8.5% lead over the GOP:

“Political conditions for Republicans continue to deteriorate and a growing number of races in traditionally Republican territory in the House and Senate look competitive. As a result, we are raising our odds of a Democratic House from 70% to 80% and a Democratic Senate from 40% to 45%,” Andy Laperriere and his team at Piper Sandler said in a note yesterday. “There are seven Senate races where the RealClearPolitics average has the races within about two-and-a-half points, and the Senate is likely to continue looking like roughly a toss-up going into election day.”

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