The author argues the post–Cold War hope that economic interdependence would end major war is fading: states now treat trade, tech, and supply chains as vulnerabilities, and hard power—plus cyber, space, AI, and semiconductors—is back at the center of security.

Ukraine, the Middle East, and U.S.–China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific are described as linked regional orders; a shock in one can travel globally through energy, trade, and supply chains. The UN Security Council is judged too paralyzed by P5 rivalry to manage this.

The recommended response is not to end great-power competition but to live with it: update multilateral rules, strengthen crisis management, keep middle powers (including Indonesia and ASEAN) non-aligned and economically resilient, and mix rivalry with limited cooperation.

The security environment internationally is experiencing a deep-rooted and complex transformation. Conflicts in Ukraine have become protracted, while the Middle East continues to experience multiple competing conflicts simultaneously, inter alia. Underway is a dramatic transformation of the global environment from a post-Cold War framework towards one of great power rivalry, characterized by an increased salience of military capacity, when combined with economic and technological tools for achieving security.

While globalization has brought in its wake increased interconnectedness and heightened economic interdependence between countries worldwide, the converse assumption, namely that these same would in due course reduce to near zero the likelihood of major conflict(s), is fast becoming obsolete. Interdependence is viewed by states through the prism of strategic vulnerability. As a result, an environment competitively multipolar is unfolding, featuring in it major powers as well as a variety of regional actors. Their security in such an environment is sought to be assured through an inter-aggregative mix of various tools, viz. military power, economic coercion, technological lead and, last but not least, partnerships with others.

Devaluations of the rules-based international order are becoming more apparent. Global........

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