THE preparation of the Strategic Trade Policy (STP) for 2026-31 is an opportunity not merely to set fresh export targets but also rethink our export strategy in the light of lessons of the past decade. Any new policy’s credibility depends on fixing structural weaknesses that have repeatedly undermined implementation.

First, policies alone don’t produce results. Pakistan has prepared numerous strategies over the past three decade, but most have fallen short because governance has been weak and institutions ineffective. Good governance is the foundation on which sound economic policies rest. It improves resource allocation, boosts competitiveness, raises productivity, reduces transaction costs and enables efficient functioning of markets. Unless accompanied by governance reforms, the new STP is unlikely to deliver outcomes different from its predecessors.

The new policy should begin with an honest assessment of the previous two STPs. STP 2015-20 envisaged exports of $35 billion by 2020, but actual exports amounted to only $20.5bn. STP 2021-26 targeted exports of $57bn by 2025, but actual exports reached only about $32bn. The government should analyse why earlier policies failed. Were the targets too optimistic? Was production capacity, particularly for non-traditional exports, assessed before targets were set? Were industrial bottlenecks identified and removed? Did the National Export Promotion Board (NEPB), chaired by the prime minister, meet regularly to review progress and resolve implementation issues? Were problems such as excessive taxation, high energy prices, tariff protection, cumbersome regulations and rising cost of doing business effectively addressed?

The review must distinguish between policy failures and external shocks. Covid-19, floods, the Ukraine war and Middle East tensions disrupted global supply chains and........

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