The single most important measurable variable affecting the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections is likely the president’s job-approval ratings, which have been slowly but surely achieving new second-term lows for months now. But being generally unpopular probably isn’t Donald Trump’s (or his party’s) biggest problem. When you dig into polling on assessments of presidential performance on particular issues of concern, one jumps right off the page and kicks the GOP like a donkey: Trump’s handling of living costs and/or inflation.

Silver Bulletin maintains a handy polling-average feature broken out by issue area. Once upon a time, Trump was in positive territory on some issues, particularly immigration. Now, his net approval is underwater on all of them, including immigration (minus 10.3 percent), the Iran war (minus 22.3 percent, trade (minus 25.4 percent), and the economy (minus 30.9 percent). But far worse is the hole he’s in on inflation (net approval of minus 45.4 percent).

Compare that with........

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