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John Kehoe

John Kehoe

Financial Review

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Why RBA rate cut could come from Jim Chalmers’ subsidies

There is a quirk in the measurement of underlying inflation in the December quarter that may put pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates early next...

19.12.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Labor is losing control of a broken budget

Despite near-record government revenues, a spending surge is causing a big blowout in budget deficits over future years.

18.12.2024 20

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Credible appointments will shake up the Reserve Bank

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has selected two good candidates and should be congratulated for shoring up the RBA at a pivotal time in the inflation fight.

16.12.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Australia needs a dose of Javier Milei’s Argentine capitalism

Australia is sleepwalking to stagnant living standards unless we adopt an agenda that restrains government and allows the private sector to flourish.

11.12.2024 20

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Victoria’s economic rescue plan is a joke but no one is laughing

The state’s new strategy resembles a political document drawn up in an episode of Utopia rather than a serious economic blueprint to revive the...

10.12.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Dovish turn as board gains confidence in inflation fight

The Reserve Bank board has noticed that parts of the economy such as consumer spending and wage growth have been a bit softer than anticipated.

10.12.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

The Reserve Bank is not smashing the jobs market

Claims the central bank is needlessly throwing vulnerable Australians out of work are not backed up by the statistics.

04.12.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

No amount of lipstick on this pig can hide the economic stagnation

The national accounts make grim reading and are indisputably worse than expected.

04.12.2024 20

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Banking rift exposed in fight against levy for rural services

The government has rejected a proposal by banks to pause regional branch closures instead of a mooted $350 million levy, as a rift deepens between...

04.12.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

The one reason Chalmers’ RBA overhaul could succeed or fail

The success of the treasurer’s historic separation of the central bank’s board will hinge on who he appoints.

29.11.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Home borrowers will pay for the rural bank branch levy

Treasury has come up with a radical but rushed plan to make all banks fund those with the biggest regional reach. But there is no guarantee that it...

20.11.2024 3

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Future Fund investment shake up comes with risks

Jim Chalmers insists Labor is making only a subtle change to the sovereign wealth fund’s investment mandate. But it could be a slippery slope.

20.11.2024 6

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Not everyone believes that a US-China trade war will smash Australia

Former BHP economist Huw McKay believes that the iron ore price will not necessarily suffer. The costs may come elsewhere.

13.11.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

How a former BHP insider sees a US-China trade war playing out

Huw McKay expects Donald Trump’s re-election to have implications for commodities, global trade patterns and Australia.

13.11.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

The silly season for bad policy has started

Previous governments went for hard and unpopular reforms. Anthony Albanese chooses the easy and populist.

06.11.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

RBA thinks the jobs market is too strong to cut interest rates

A rate cut before the federal election now looks like only a possibility and not a done deal, putting the government and opposition on notice to be...

05.11.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Trump is the elephant in the room on climate targets

The US election result next week will influence the world’s global climate change action plans, including Australia.

30.10.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Australia is getting serious about the housing crisis

Young people, parents and grandparents should all have a stake in fixing arguably the No.1 economic and social challenge, writes John Kehoe.

23.10.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Albanese’s $4.3m home controversy is pure tall poppy syndrome

Financial success of public leaders is celebrated in the United States. But in Australia, it is political poison.

16.10.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why the RBA can’t cut interest rates as fast as overseas

The central bank has adopted a softer approach on interest rates than foreign counterparts, so local borrowers will need to be patient.

09.10.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

RBA should spell out rules on private meetings with market movers

The holding of confidential meetings can backfire when some people think that others are getting advantaged access to the central bank’s thinking.

02.10.2024 8

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Spending pressures make third surplus unlikely

The treasurer has delivered a solid second budget surplus of $15.8 billion on the back of booming income tax receipts, but future spending pressures...

30.09.2024 5

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Government spending blowout is the size of the mining boom

Like the mining investment boom of the early 2000s, the economic shock from higher government spending will have implications for inflation,...

25.09.2024 20

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why ‘free’ childcare is bad for working parents

Further childcare subsidies will likely require an explicit new tax rise to fund it. Billions of dollars of more debt can’t be added to the national...

20.09.2024 6

Financial Review

John Kehoe

How business and economists can become relevant again

A central problem is that good economic policies have not been well communicated and have often been debated in an echo chamber of elites.

18.09.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Bill Shorten’s Labor legacy: tax, spend and a broken NDIS

Beyond the NDIS blowout, Shorten failed to build a new Labor economic growth project that was more aspirational for hard-working and over-taxed wage...

11.09.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

We will all pay the price for RBA board reform failure

More expertise on the central bank’s board could help avoid an unfortunate repeat of Philip Lowe’s pandemic-era guidance that interest rates were...

10.09.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

China’s EVs good for Aussie drivers, but risk global trade war

Inside Australia’s national security and economic agencies, a new vexing issue about China is being discussed.

28.08.2024 4

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why the RBA will ignore lower inflation

While Treasurer Jim Chalmers will welcome Wednesday’s lower inflation number, the RBA won’t be fooled by the temporary and artificial effect of...

28.08.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

RBA must not mince its words for Chalmers

Treasurers have often tried to muzzle bankers and economists undermining the government’s economic narrative.

21.08.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Government spending addiction adds to RBA recession risk

If Bill Shorten is so worried the RBA could cause a recession, he should listen to Michele Bullock and Matt Comyn and kick the addiction to government...

14.08.2024 8

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Future Made in Australia is already running off the rails

The Albanese government has fallen into the trap of trying to achieve political wins at high economic cost. And nobody is stopping them.

07.08.2024 20

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Future Made in Australia becomes a taxpayer-funded slush fund

The Albanese government has fallen into the trap of trying to achieve political wins at high economic cost. And nobody is stopping them.

07.08.2024 6

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Interest rate rise only narrowly avoided

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock has sent a stern reminder that the sharemarket is not the economy.

06.08.2024 8

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why the $3m super tax has turned into a mess

It may seem hard to argue against making people with high superannuation balances pay more tax, but implementing it is a dog’s breakfast.

31.07.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Inflation stays sticky, but it won’t force RBA rate rise

The consumer price figures were not as bad as feared, but inflation remains persistent and higher-for-longer interest rates will be required.

31.07.2024 8

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Aged care insurance fees jump on threat of fines and jail

Premiums have doubled for some aged care providers and directors, due to potential big fines and jail time for breaching proposed tougher laws.

03.07.2024 7

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Energy transition will cost much more than politicians are pretending

The brutal reality is that taxpayers and consumers will be on the hook for much higher costs under a renewable or nuclear energy system.

03.07.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

How the RBA’s big interest rate experiment exposes Labor

The moment of truth to test Australian exceptionalism is about to arrive. Persistent local inflation suggests the strategy is coming under pressure...

28.06.2024 6

Financial Review

John Kehoe

RBA edges closer to interest rate rise as inflation proves sticky

Governor Michele Bullock will be troubled by the latest inflation data, and contemplating the real possibility of an interest rate rise at the August...

26.06.2024 5

Financial Review

John Kehoe

How the AFL got itself hooked on harmful gambling

The insidious link between professional sport and betting was exposed by Gillon McLachlan’s appointment as chief executive of Tabcorp.

26.06.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why JobKeeper may be part of our productivity problem

An anxious Reserve Bank of Australia is hoping for a pick-up in labour productivity this year to help alleviate the economy’s inflation problem.

19.06.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

The flaws in CSIRO’s anti-nuclear, pro-renewables report

The CSIRO must give a better “apples with apples” comparison of nuclear and renewables to inform the energy transition debate.

12.06.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why the RBA won’t copy Canada’s interest rate cut

The economic and interest rate cycle in Australia is quite different to our Canadian cousins, despite the similarity in the structure of the...

06.06.2024 6

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Why weak GDP is not the full picture for the RBA

The economy is barely crawling, but weak 0.1 per cent quarterly growth should be considered a Goldilocks scenario for Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the...

05.06.2024 8

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Treasury is addicted to income tax to fund spending

Virtually everyone is protected by the government from inflation eroding their real incomes, except the humble wage earner.

05.06.2024 9

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Taxpayers are poorer without a carbon tax

Instead of imposing a carbon levy on polluters to fund big personal income tax cuts, governments are gambling taxpayer money on climate and energy...

29.05.2024 10

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Bill Shorten’s NDIS spending claims can’t be trusted

For hard-working taxpayers, the NDIS minister must deliver his pledged $14.4 billion savings, not just forecasts.

22.05.2024 30

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Chalmers is telling a big budget fib

Treasurer Jim Chalmers stood in front of 600 guests at his post-budget speech in Parliament House on Wednesday and repeated a misleading number...

15.05.2024 20

Financial Review

John Kehoe

Australia’s ‘dumb’ budget luck in one extraordinary chart

Treasurers have been extremely lucky to receive big tax revenue windfalls from the China-driven mining boom, but none have been as lucky as Jim...

08.05.2024 70

Financial Review

John Kehoe

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