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An economic shock due to the war in West Asia has again hit India after the Covid shock in 2020. And, the marginalised sections are once again the worst affected. Due to their precarious situation, some of them are migrating back to their villages.

The hope of an early end to the war is fading with the failure of the ceasefire talks in Pakistan. The key demands made by the two sides on each other were irreconcilable. This gap between the 15 points put forward by the US and the 10 point demand from Iran was substantial – a result of the fundamental differences in the objectives sought to be achieved by the two sides. The demands made by the US were aimed at a permanent subjugation of Iran while Iran was asserting the preservation of its sovereignty.

The US thought that its pummeling of Iran since February 28 would bring the Iranian rulers to their knees. However, despite being militarily much weaker, Iran retaliated against attacks on its infrastructure by attacking US and Israeli targets across West Asia. The USA’s expectation of an early end of the war was also belied by the unexpected resilience shown by the Iranians.

Now that the negotiations have broken down, will the fighting resume or will the ceasefire hold for 2 weeks?  Trump has announced blockade the Strait of Hormuz. But, it is already largely blockaded by Iran. The US believes, Iran would not be able to sell its crude oil and therefore lose revenue that it needs to fight the war. But, 90% of Iranian crude went to China and that can continue through the land route and so can the supplies to Iran from China. Trump has also threatened 50% tariff on China if it helps Iran. But China has not bothered about US threats of tariffs till now and too much is at stake for it to listen to Trump’s threats now.

It is clear that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked for now even if the war between Iran and US and Israel does not restart. There is a strong possibility of war restarting given Israel’s continuing attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran cannot be seen to be abandoning its ally and may have to resume its attacks on Israel. That would bring the ceasefire to an end.

All pointers are towards the persistence of energy shortage for India. As stocks of crude and petroleum products get exhausted, the situation would worsen and it is the marginalised in India who would face the worst impact given that they hardly have any savings to weather a crisis.

The precarious situation of the marginalised is illustrated by the plight of my masseur. He and some of his neighbours went back to their villages because they were neither able to prepare meals at home nor buy it from the market. The gas cylinder they used to buy for Rs 1,200 shot up to Rs.3,000 (if available) in black. The price of the 5 kg cylinder they used to fill at Rs.100 per kg increased to Rs.500 per kg. The landlord does not allow them to use an electric heater. The price of tea and dal and chapatti at the........

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