One year after Operation Sindoor pushed India and Pakistan to the edge of open war, South Asia is living through a paradox: deterrence succeeded, but stability weakened. The four-day confrontation ended quickly enough to prevent catastrophic escalation between two nuclear powers.

Yet the aftermath has produced neither reconciliation nor durable restraint. Instead, the conflict appears to have institutionalised a new condition of permanent hostility in which both sides believe they emerged strategically stronger. That is the most dangerous outcome possible. For India, the military operation marked a decisive political shift. New Delhi no longer appears willing to separate cross-border terrorism from the Pakistani state structure that shelters or tolerates militant infrastructure.

The message after the Pahalgam killings and subsequent retaliation was unmistakable: future attacks may invite direct military punishment, not merely diplomatic protest, or symbolic strikes. This effectively lowers the threshold for conventional conflict in South Asia. But Pakistan also drew conclusions from the same confrontation. Despite India’s superior economic and military weight, Islamabad survived the initial assault,........

© The Statesman