A crowd of Venezuelans attending a protest in April 2019 in support of opposition figure Juan Guaido. After the seizure of Nicolas Maduro, a democratic transition has become far more likely. (Shutterstock/Julio Lovera)

Venezuela Needs New Elections—Now

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The United States can play a critical role in transitioning Venezuela’s existing Chavista movement from an autocracy into a political faction within a democratic framework.

Last month, Venezuela was thrust into global headlines after the United States’ daring raid against President Nicolás Maduro, capturing him and extraditing him to New York to stand trial on drug trafficking charges. In Maduro’s absence, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez ascended to lead the country, signaling a willingness to cooperate with the United States but a desire to leave the Chavista authoritarian structure intact. In the weeks since then, amid a new crisis in the Middle East, Venezuela is slipping back toward obscurity. Do Americans actually care about the country’s future, or has it become little more than a domestic political talking point?

There appears little popular support for a sustained and long-term engagement in Venezuela, leaving the country with only the next three years of the Trump administration to achieve decisive economic outcomes and a political transition. It is imperative that Venezuela hold free, fair, and credible elections as soon as practicable to restore democratic legitimacy and remove the Chavista regime from power.

Those who truly want Venezuela to reclaim its place as a nation that upholds liberty, combats corruption, and renews democratic governance must recognize that the challenge demands a long-term effort. The sole spokespeople for this approach appear to be opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But what can these two figures accomplish on their own? Where are the US representatives who profess strong commitments to humanitarian values and social progress?

In 2019, Congress stood up the bipartisan Venezuela Democracy Caucus to focus on support for the Venezuela people and bring about freedom and democracy. However, this committee hasn’t even met since Trump took office for the second time. Paradoxically, though the Trump administration has been a vociferous advocate for freedom in Venezuela, its seeming embracing of regime leadership—instead of pushing for new elections—sends the signal that democracy in Venezuela simply is not a priority. And the president’s actions have disempowered Congress to pursue legislative consensus.

Venezuela Has Tremendous Potential—with the Right Institutions

Despite the temporary framework currently guiding policy on this complex problem, there is still reason for cautious optimism.

Cynics may argue that Venezuela is decades away from prosperity at best, or doomed to permanent failed-state status at worst. Yet the country possesses extraordinary natural endowments, even beyond its status as holder of the world’s largest proven oil reserves. It boasts vast deposits of natural gas, coal, gold, and iron ore, along with significant sources of nickel, coltan, copper, and diamonds. These are resources that could position Venezuela as a key player in a wide variety of emerging technology sectors—clean energy, electric vehicles, renewables, and high-tech manufacturing—if properly harnessed. Venezuela’s abundant hydroelectric potential from rivers and waterfalls could fuel large-scale development. Fertile soils support diverse agriculture including coffee, cocoa, rice, corn, sugar cane, fruits, and livestock. The Caribbean coastline offers immense seafood and tourism opportunities, enhanced by stunning natural beauty and year-round spring-like weather free of hurricanes.

Of course, realizing this enormous potential requires far more than resource wealth alone. Decades of institutional decay, corruption, brain drain, and infrastructure collapse present formidable barriers. But once the stranglehold of overbearing, failed governance is lifted through credible political change, Venezuela’s latent strengths could drive an economic revival that would make the post-war miracle of West Germany in the 1950s seem modest by comparison.

How Venezuela Could Transition to Democracy

The essential element to catalyzing such change will be free and fair elections—though history shows they are rarely sufficient on their own. For most of the past 25 years, Hugo Chávez‘ revolutionary movement has appeared invincible, entrenching itself deeply in state institutions, the oil sector, and society at large. This influence is so vast and so pernicious that it remains intact even a dozen years after Chávez’ death, with his adherents continuing to promote his moribund economic system and stifle dissent through force. Yet single elections have occasionally shattered entrenched power—as seen in Brazil and Tanzania in 1985, South Korea in 1987, Chile in 1988, and Nicaragua in 1990.

In Venezuela’s case, with its strong pre-Chávez democratic tradition and a regime whose failures have dramatically eroded popular support, elections will act as a powerful catalyst for fundamental change. Few Venezuelans benefit from the old order today, and while some in power remain tied to human rights abuses, narcotics trafficking, and corruption, the majority in the military, bureaucracy, and even within the broader Chavismo movement recognize the need for change and are ready to adapt.

Transition could be smoother if the opposition and international community acknowledge that Chávez’ movement retains a degree of legitimacy among segments of the population. Rather than attempting to seek its total exclusion from Venezuelan political life, both should allow it to evolve into a constructive, participatory political party that could retain influence at the local level, demonstrate its ability to bring about good government, and someday win back power through the ballot box. Doing so would reduce resistance among regime holdouts and foster long-term inclusion. And Latin America offers abundant precedents: the FMLN in El Salvador, FSLN in Nicaragua, FARC in Colombia, and the Tupamaros in Uruguay all transitioned from militant or revolutionary roots to enduring democratic actors.

Complementary mechanisms, such as a truth and reconciliation process—as seen in South Africa, Chile, Argentina, and El Salvador—could help address past abuses. Of course, Venezuela’s challenges, which encompass not just human rights violations but widespread corruption and narco-trafficking, could make this more complex.

Elections and reconciliation would form only part of a broader strategy. History underscores that shifts from dictatorship to democracy demand a patient, multifaceted process. This process should include external mediation (e.g., via the OAS), targeted amnesties or reduced prosecutions for lower-level actors, economic and political incentives, and genuine internal leadership commitment to moderation.

America Could Shepherd a Democratic Transition in Venezuela

Encouraging signs of sustained international engagement are already emerging. On February 18, US Southern Command Commander Marine Gen. Francis L. Donovan made a surprise visit to Caracas, meeting with interim authorities under Rodríguez, US Chargé d’affaires Laura F. Dogu, and Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense Joseph M. Humire. Gen. Donovan stated at the time that he looked forward to returning soon to advance Trump’s three-phase plan focused on stabilization, economic recovery, and eventual transition. US efforts are shifting from support to resistance toward foreign internal defense against subversion, lawlessness, and potential instability.

The most effective approach would ensure the United States remains actively involved, but only 21 percent of Americans currently support that. A harmful pattern of disengagement from Latin America over the past three decades—a reaction to past perceived and real abuses of American power—must give way to proactive engagement, which respects the ideals specified in the charter of the Organization of American States, but also allows for US leadership. This means combining market-based incentives to revive Venezuela’s once-vibrant entrepreneurial spirit with capital investment, institutional rebuilding, and strong support for the rule of law.

The path back from dictatorship will not be quick or linear. It requires imagination, persistence, and realism about setbacks. Yet with continued pressure, inclusive political evolution, and committed international support, particularly from the United States, Venezuela has a credible chance to reclaim its heritage as a prosperous, peaceful democracy and rejoin the community of free nations. The biggest stumbling block will be that only a minority of Americans remain committed for the long haul; for that reason, success will likely require quick gains over the next three years to make Venezuela’s vast potential possible.

About the Authors: Homer Harkins and Robert Burrell

Dr. Homer Harkins is a faculty member at the United Arab Emirates War College in Abu Dhabi. Prior to this role, Dr. Harkins served on the faculty of the Joint Special Operations University at MacDill Air Force Base, where he held positions from instructor to Dean of Academics and Director of the Center for Irregular Warfare. A retired Army Lieutenant Colonel, he served as an infantry officer, an Army Ranger, and a Latin American Foreign Area Officer. In 2015, Dr. Harkins earned his Doctorate in Education, and his earlier education includes a BBA, an MA in Computer Resources and Information Management, and an MS in International Relations.

Dr. Robert Burrell is a senior research fellow with the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida. From 2020 to 2024, he taught irregular warfare at the Joint Special Operations University, and earlier served as US Special Operations Command’s Editor-in-Chief for irregular warfare doctrine. A retired Marine with multiple combat tours, Dr. Burrell has spent 12 years living and working across Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand, plus a diplomatic tour at the US Embassy in Australia. He holds a PhD in History from the University of Warwick, and master’s degrees from San Diego State University and the US Naval War College.

© The National Interest