GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state Kansas

It’s been 94 years since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland. 

“It’s all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that after 96 years, a Democrat could win a Senate seat in Kansas, but it also could be that there’s a reason for it not happening in 96 years, that Marshall pulls it out simply because it’s so difficult,” said Bob Beatty, professor of political science at Washburn University in Topeka. 

Elections analysts have moved the Kansas Senate race to the left in recent weeks as polls indicate that, like elsewhere around the country, President Trump’s low approval rating is dragging down Republican candidates. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia both shifted the race to “Lean Republican” from “Likely Republican” last week.

Kansas is generally a red state, although it has sometimes elected moderate Democratic governors. Trump won Kansas in 2024 by 16 points. But his approval rating in the state now hovers around 40 percent, while Hamilton polls slightly ahead of Marshall at 45 percent to 43 percent, according to a Sept. 16 Emerson College/Nexstar poll. That mirrors many other red states, like nearby Iowa, where Republican candidates are facing negative public opinion about tariffs, the war in Iran and the resulting high prices.

Beatty said Hamilton is a uniquely strong Democratic contender to capitalize on that national trend. Hamilton has never held political office but has been the pastor of a network of United Methodist churches he founded in the Kansas City metro area for 36........

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