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Without tariffs, prices on many everyday goods would have fallen

Without the levies, prices on many everyday goods would have fallen slightly, researchers found

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

New York Fed researchers found that President Donald Trump's tariffs had pushed the consumer goods price level 2.9% higher as of February 2026 — and that prices would have dipped modestly in their absence.

The finding comes from a study by New York Fed economists Mary Amiti and Sebastian Heise and Columbia University economics professor David E. Weinstein, summarized in a New York Fed blog post Monday. Covering 67 categories of non-oil consumer goods and excluding services, the paper........

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