Leaders survive based on the systems that grant them power, not their personal popularity.

Parliamentary politics in Britain offers low shelter from removal by peers.

Football managers are judged by results, which can shield them from the ups and downs of fan opinion.

In both politics and football, a leader's longevity depends on perceived trajectory, not current popularity.

On the weekend of June 20-21, 2026, leaders of two British institutions were under great pressure. Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, was deciding whether to resign after more than 100 of his own party’s MPs called for his departure. Thomas Tuchel was managing the England men’s football team through the group stage of the FIFA World Cup under the long shadow of a predecessor, who, despite relentless criticism, delivered the team’s best sustained run in 60 years.

Neither leader’s popularity was at its lowest ever. But confidence in neither of them could be described as high.

In late 2025, Ipsos rated Starmer’s popularity at -66, the lowest ever recorded for any British prime minister. By the time Starmer announced his resignation, on June 22, his popularity had improved slightly, to -60. But even this was lower than Liz Truss’s previously record-breaking score of -59 in 2022, at the end of the briefest premiership........

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