Does the war in Iran create risks for Türkiye?..

The Middle East is so contradictory and interdependent that a conflict in one country can reverberate in its neighbours. In this regard, events in Iran are a trigger for the expansion of the regional crisis.

Türkiye’s stance on the conflict in Iran

Türkiye and Iran are the closest geographical neighbours and historical opponents. After the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the establishment of the theocratic regime in Iran, Türkiye became the principal US ally among Muslim countries. Iran’s withdrawal from the regional CENTO bloc naturally boosted Türkiye’s position as the southern anchor of the NATO bloc in the Middle East. In fact, the change in Tehran’s foreign policy course from an alliance with the Anglo-Saxons towards isolationism (political and economic autarky) contributed to the strengthening of Türkiye. However, Ankara’s pragmatic policy ruled out the path of aggravating relations with Tehran.

In modern times, given Iran’s vast energy resources and despite the policy of Western sanctions, Türkiye started developing partnership economic ties with the Islamic Republic. In 1996, these led to the construction of the Tabriz-Ankara Iranian gas pipeline (commissioned in 2001 with a capacity of 14 billion cubic metres of gas per year), through which the Turks receive up to 10% of the gas they consume. In the realms of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Türkiye maintains friendly contacts with Iran; they are united by the values of Islam and common approaches to the settlement of the Palestinian issue, with both of them criticising Israeli policy. It is obvious that in the Kurdish issue as well, the approaches of Ankara and Tehran are generally similar, as they rule out any form of establishing a Kurdish autonomy.

Naturally, certain contradictions are still coming between Türkiye and Iran. Firstly, Türkiye remains a member of NATO, which is perceived hostilely by Iran. Secondly, Ankara’s ambitious geopolitical and geoeconomic aspirations within the framework of the doctrine of neo-Panturanism towards the Turkic states of the post-Soviet space spark, at the very least, apprehension in........

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