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Opinion: Why hopes for regime collapse in Iran are misguided

The Islamic Republic long ago immunized itself against the type of decapitation strategy employed by the U.S. and Israel

British historian G. M. Trevelyan memorably described the European revolutions of 1848 as “the turning point at which modern history failed to turn.” The current of history seemed to sweep European states towards ever greater personal freedom, expanding democracy and nationalism. But those liberal revolutions fizzled out.

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In our own time, the turning point where history fails to turn is the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Every wave of nationwide protest, every round of sanctions, every economic crisis and every military confrontation since the Iran-Iraq War has been presented as the moment when the system would finally give way. Despite rising internal discontent, regime incompetence and external pressure, the Islamic Republic endures.

Opinion: Why hopes for regime collapse in Iran are misguided Back to video

The answer as to why this is the case begins with a persistent analytical mistake. Policymakers and commentators wrongly assess the Islamic Republic as though it were a conventional government whose survival depends primarily on economic performance, public consent and diplomatic legitimacy. They assume that falling living standards, political isolation, widespread anger and military pressure must eventually produce regime change.

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But the Islamic Republic does not exist for the sake of........

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