When Donald Trump spoke of “Project Freedom” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the plan was supposed to be a display of restored American deterrence: an operation meant to prove that Washington could still open the world’s energy artery with its military fleet and its network of regional bases. Yet the rapid suspension of the project, after Saudi Arabia’s initial opposition to the use of its bases and airspace, carried a deeper meaning. This was not merely an operational disagreement.

“Project Freedom” showed that the Persian Gulf security order has entered a new phase: Arab states have not turned their backs on America, but they are no longer willing, without calculation, to serve as the launchpad for Washington’s war with Iran.

“Project Freedom” showed that the Persian Gulf security order has entered a new phase: Arab states have not turned their backs on America, but they are no longer willing, without calculation, to serve as the launchpad for Washington’s war with Iran.

The significance of this shift became even clearer with the interim agreement between the United States and Iran. The framework, which is reportedly expected to lead to the reopening of Hormuz, ease pressure on the energy market, and begin a sixty-day period for nuclear negotiations, was not simply the product of military pressure. It was also the result of the constraints America faced on the regional battlefield. Washington could send more warships, but it could not be certain that all of its Arab partners would stand with it in every escalation scenario.

For decades, the relationship between Washington and the Arab governments of the Persian Gulf rested on a simple formula: oil, bases, and political alignment in exchange for security. Arab states provided access and alignment; in return, they expected protection. But the 2019 attacks on Aramco created the first serious crack in that mindset. Riyadh expected a decisive response, yet America’s reaction remained limited. From that moment, a hard question began to take shape: in a moment of danger, would........

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