The Middle East once seemed inseparable from oil — a resource that anchored state budgets, political bargains and global strategic partnerships. Now, that era of oil-led stability is fading into history, and something new — yet uncertain — is emerging in its wake. The region appears to be caught between two worlds: no longer anchored by oil’s political gravity, and not yet equipped with a stable, inclusive framework for a post-oil future. This is not merely an economic transition; it is a political and governance conundrum unfolding in an increasingly multipolar global order.

The myth of transition without governance

Across capitals from Cairo to Riyadh, Abu Dhabi to Baghdad, governments are issuing bold statements about energy transition. Solar megaprojects, hydrogen ambitions and investment in renewables have become hallmarks of strategic planning. Yet these plans often overlook a stark reality: transition requires strong institutions and transparent governance, not just capital and technology.

Put simply, technology can be bought — but governance cannot.

In many countries in the region, state legitimacy and institutional capacity have not kept up with the pace of energy ambitions. This disconnect threatens to render transition aspirational rather than substantive.

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Infrastructure fragility and the politics of power

Modern energy systems are defined as much by infrastructure as by the resources they convey. Transmission networks, cross-border grids, gas........

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