Japan and the Philippines announced they will begin negotiations to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves (essentially their maritime boundary).[i] The announcement, the latest in a series of adverse developments in China–Japan relations and in the South China Sea (SCS), has potential implications for the regional strategic-security landscape as well as cross-Strait ties.

The intended maritime area for the announced negotiations includes maritime territory near Japan’s southernmost islands, such as the Yaeyama Islands, and the Philippines’ northernmost islands, such as Mavulis Island. Importantly, this entire maritime area lies directly east of Taiwan.[ii] A proposed delimitation of the maritime boundary of EEZs and continental shelves in the region “significantly overlaps with Taiwan’s [claims]” and China sees the attempt as a challenge to its position on Taiwan.[iii]

China and Taiwan’s Stances on Proposed Negotiations

Taiwan is a self-governing territory that functions under the name of the Republic of China (ROC) and claims sovereignty. The People’s Republic of China (PRC, China), which is committed to “reunifying” Taiwan with the mainland, rejects this claim. Except for a few tiny nations, the international community does not recognise the ROC’s existence or Taiwan’s sovereign status. Therefore, its maritime claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and other relevant laws remain unenforceable.

From a strictly legal point of view, the Chinese claim that the area in question lies “east of China’s Taiwan Island” would be more congruent. However, until now, this has essentially remained a theoretical assertion of sovereignty due to Taiwan’s de facto separation from the mainland. China has chosen not to disturb the status quo on the islands, islets or atolls held by Taiwan—the Taiwanese administration exercises control over islands such as Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu in the Taiwan Strait, and Taiping Island (Itu Aba) in Nansha (Spratly) Islands and Dongsha (Pratas) Islands in the SCS.

Yet the proposition that China’s relaxed stance towards Taiwan-controlled islands, which are essentially indefensible from a military perspective, could change, especially amid intensified and aggressive strategic-security manoeuvres in the contested maritime regions of the SCS, East China Sea (ECS) and the western Pacific, should not be dismissed as improbable.

For its part, Taiwan has welcomed Japan and the Philippines “for working to resolve maritime differences through peaceful dialogue and based on respect for international law”.[iv] Reiterating its sovereignty over the relevant maritime area, it has urged them to take into account its interests, especially its pre-existing fishery agreements with the two countries, during negotiations.[v] However, China has denounced the announcement as violating its “domestic law and international law including UNCLOS” and “a severe violation of [its] maritime rights and interests”.[vi] It has maintained that these talks are detrimental to regional peace and........

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