Israel-Centric US Policy and Limited Regional Buy-In: US actions against Iran, including repeated cycles of strikes and temporary ceasefires since mid-2025, appear heavily influenced by Israeli priorities; despite Trump’s efforts, most Gulf and Arab states have criticized Iranian attacks but refused to join the military campaign, prioritizing their own security and avoiding deeper entanglement.

Failure of Assumptions About Victory: Expectations that sustained US-Israel strikes would force Iran to yield, or that regional and international allies would rally to the cause, have not materialized; Iran retains retaliatory capabilities (including missiles and leverage over the Strait of Hormuz), leaving both sides without a clear victory after multiple rounds of conflict.

Diplomacy Subordinated to Israel Conditions: Broader US regional diplomacy, such as the proposed civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, remains tightly linked to normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords; this Israel-first approach, combined with the unresolved Palestinian issue, continues to limit Washington’s ability to build wider coalitions against Iran.

United States’ diplomacy towards countries in the Middle East cannot be de-linked from their relations with Israel. It is not without reason that President Donald Trump recently commented that it was time for several countries to “recognize” Israel. Trump’s war-strikes against Iran also seem to have been strongly influenced by Israel. US and Iran were engaged in diplomatic moves when Israel initiated the 12-day strike against Iran last year in June. US apparently had no option but that of joining Israel against Iran. Trump was perhaps briefly convinced that it will not take long to defeat Iran. With this not being possible in 12 days, he decided to call off the war to start giving importance to dialogue. However, this stage of diplomacy was short-lived. US together with Israel began joint strikes against Iran from February 28. The two assumed that their strikes extending beyond several weeks and months would be sufficient. This wasn’t the........

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