By Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib says SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei’s threat to disrupt states that close airspace or airports to sanctioned Iranian airlines, plus Tehran’s refusal to reopen Hormuz until U.S. terms are met, risks turning Gulf, Turkish, and Pakistani neutrality into confrontation.

She argues neighbors (citing Saudi refusal of U.S. bases in May) stayed out to avoid Israel’s wider war, but would answer strikes on their airports; Turkey’s moves against Bank Mellat and Mahan Air after Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are treated as a warning.

Iranian elites are split on the Saudi–Turkey–Pakistan Mecca pact (Araghchi warmer than hardline MPs); the author wants Tehran to join a regional security setup instead of “if we go down, everyone goes down” threats.

Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei last week issued a warning to countries enforcing US sanctions on Iranian airlines. He said that states preventing Iran from using their airspace and airports would face disruption. This was a blunt and direct threat to countries in the region. Iran should understand that it is now pushing the limits.

Rezaei also said that Tehran would neither reopen the Strait of Hormuz nor negotiate until Washington meets its conditions for ending the war. So far, Iran has managed to absorb the attacks. Despite the decapitation of its senior leadership, the country did not fall into chaos. Iran’s limited success was down to the fact it has institutions that can survive such a decapitation, partly due to their military power but to a large extent because the countries of the........

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