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Paul Whiteley

Paul Whiteley

The Conversation

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Could trusting each other more unlock economic growth?

Investing in infrastructure and skills is essential, but social capital shoudn’t be overlooked as a driver of growth.

friday 2

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Is Reform really pulling ahead of Labour? Polling expert on what to really make of Farage’s supposed lead

Looking at how votes were distributed in 2024 offers a more reassuring picture.

13.12.2024 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

How game theory predicts Trump might not do all that he threatens over Ukraine, Taiwan and Nato

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections has left many across the world unsure about what he might do in his next term, and whether...

18.11.2024 20

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald...

24.10.2024 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Why the Tories may be wasting their time trying to compete with Reform

The spectre of the Reform party has been haunting the Tories since the general election. There is a general consensus that Reform split the vote on...

18.10.2024 20

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Harris leads Trump in the polls – here’s what they really tell us about her chances

Poll data shows that Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in the US presidential election campaign. She has an average vote intention score of 48.2%,...

27.09.2024 8

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

What are the political consequences of austerity? A history lesson for Keir Starmer

The British government has argued that a black hole exists in the public finances to the tune of £22 billion in this financial year. It claims that...

20.09.2024 8

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Election 2024 polls were wide of the mark on Labour’s margin of victory – this is what may have happened

The 2024 UK election campaign was dominated by discussion of the polls, from start to finish. This was partially because of the sheer volume of polls...

12.07.2024 5

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Why Labour should worry this election will be more like 2001 than 1997

What if many people just don’t bother voting in this election? The polls may suggest a landslide victory for Labour, but the party is worried about...

28.06.2024 4

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

What would a Reform surge do to Labour and the Liberal Democrats? Two scenarios mapped

Labour leader Keir Starmer and Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey had what looked like a political strategy meeting when they were sitting together in...

21.06.2024 6

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Has Reform really overtaken the Tories in the polls? And does that mean it could beat them on July 4?

A YouGov poll has put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives for the first time. After a terrible few weeks of election campaigning, the Tories are on...

14.06.2024 4

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Paul Whiteley

Why doesn’t economic good news shift the polls for Rishi Sunak? An analysis of 27 past elections explains the problem

One of the few success stories of the Conservative government is the fall in inflation, which is now close to the target rate set by the Bank of...

07.06.2024 7

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Should Rishi Sunak even bother? What we know about how much election campaigns shift the dial

With polls showing Labour enjoying a significant lead over the Conservatives for well over a year, a key question as the election campaign picks up...

31.05.2024 30

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

US election: why Latino and Hispanic voters are shifting to Trump after a long history of supporting the Democrats

Several recent polls suggest that the Hispanic and Latino vote is shifting towards Donald Trump as the election moves closer. In a YouGov poll from...

20.05.2024 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Rishi Sunak claims the UK is heading for a hung a parliament – let’s check his maths

By common consent, the local elections on May 2 were a disaster for the Conservatives. The party lost a total of 478 councillors in the 107 councils...

07.05.2024 40

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

These local council results suggest Tory decimation at the general election ahead

The local elections which took place on May 2 have provided an unusually rich set of results to pore over. Around 2,600 seats were up for election on...

03.05.2024 50

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

US election: two graphs show how young voters influence presidential results as Biden gets poll boost

American politics is very polarised at the moment, with bitter disagreements between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, in the media and in the...

27.03.2024 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Labour’s Muslim vote: what the data so far says about the election risk of Keir Starmer’s Gaza position

According to the 2021 census, 6.5% of the population in England and Wales identify as Muslim. In Rochdale, which has just elected George Galloway to...

08.03.2024 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Joe Biden has raised more than Trump so far – here’s how US election fundraising is working out

Americans spend mind-blowing amounts of money on their elections. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) in the 2016 presidential election...

23.02.2024 8

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Ukraine war: what the US public thinks about giving military and other aid

The issue of military aid to Ukraine is still gridlocked in the US Congress, with Republicans refusing to support additional spending on arms for...

08.02.2024 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

Two charts that reveal a key weakness in Trump’s reelection bid

Donald Trump’s win in New Hampshire’s Republican primary on January 23, a week after his decisive victory in the Iowa caucuses, means that he is...

25.01.2024 5

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Paul Whiteley

Biden’s not yet getting a poll bump for the improving economy – history tells us why

When Americans are confident about their economy, they tend to support the incumbent president. When they are not confident, they tend to withdraw...

11.01.2024 7

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

US election: Jewish and Muslim votes probably don’t have the power to change the outcome – despite backlash on Gaza policy

Recent polling suggests that Joe Biden’s policy of backing Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian war is hurting him in the eyes of American Muslims. An...

22.12.2023 10

The Conversation

Paul Whiteley

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