In the year and a half since Labour won a landslide in the 2024 general election, over 400 polls have been published. Combined, these polls tell a story of a government and its traditional opposition party losing support and fringe parties gaining ground. The big question this poses is whether Reform can win the next general election.

When these polls are combined into weekly averages since the general election, they show that Labour and Reform have averaged 25% in vote intentions over this period. The Conservatives have averaged 21%, the Liberal Democrats 13% and the Greens 9%.

Vote intentions since the 2024 election:

The trends show that support for Labour has declined continuously since the election. In the case of the Conservatives, they were ahead of Reform until shortly after Kemi Badenoch was elected as leader. From this point on, Nigel Farage’s Reform party moved well ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

It appears that Badenoch’s strategy of trying to outdo Reform in rightwing rhetoric has failed. The Liberal Democrats have remained close to their 13% support throughout. The Greens received a boost when Zack Polanski was elected leader in September 2025. The Greens are now a strong rival to Labour, hoovering up leftwing voters who supported Labour in the general election.........

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