Over the past year, the Gulf states have lived with the highs and lows of an American president who likes to take big bets. In May 2025, he visited Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, wagering heavily on their economic success and on the prospect of their renewed partnerships with the United States. He celebrated the region’s modernization efforts and its ambitious economic diversification plans.

Standing alongside the leaders of some of America’s largest corporations, Trump announced a cascade of deals between American and Gulf businesses, along with pledges by Gulf states to invest trillions in the United States. The numbers were eye-popping, and, as always, more aspirational than bankable.

Beneath the Trumpian spectacle and the brazen self-dealing was a serious strategic idea: Washington’s relationships with Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi should no longer be defined by oil, weapons, and crisis management, but should instead be built around technology, investment, and the Gulf’s ambitions for economic transformation. This vision resonated with the leaders of the Gulf states and their citizens, who have increasingly come to see themselves not as mere custodians of oil fields and checkbooks, but as builders of dynamic new economies and societies. 

In February, Trump turned his attention back to the Middle East, brushed aside warnings from the Gulf states, and made his most reckless wager yet: he launched a war against Iran. The gleaming skylines Trump had so lavishly praised were now streaked with plumes of smoke. Iranian missiles and drones threatened everything the Gulf states had spent decades building. The Gulf states performed admirably in defending their skies, but the war exposed a core vulnerability: Iran had effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which flows much of........

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