Donald Trump built his brand on dealmaking. So why, after bombing Iran for forty days, does a lasting agreement still feel out of reach?

The bombs worked — up to a point. American and Israeli strikes degraded Iran’s military capabilities significantly, eliminating commanders and destroying facilities that Tehran spent decades building. A ceasefire took hold in April. But military success and political success are different things. Iran has not capitulated. The regime is battered, not broken. The popular uprising Trump appeared to anticipate has not materialized. And the uncomfortable question hanging over Washington is: what would more bombing actually achieve at this point?

To understand why, it is worth turning to the world’s most influential book on negotiation.

Roger Fisher and William Ury’s Getting to Yes has been taught in law schools and business schools for over four decades. Fisher himself helped broker the Camp David peace deal between Egypt and Israel. The book’s central insight is simple: what matters most in any negotiation is not the opening offer or the deadline. It is what each side will do if talks fall apart. Fisher and Ury called this the BATNA, the Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. The side with the stronger fallback holds the real power, regardless of who is making the most noise or wielding the bigger stick.

Iran’s BATNA remains surprisingly resilient. Despite the devastation, the regime can still claim survival itself as a form of victory, deepen ties with China and Russia, and wait for Trump’s domestic political window to narrow........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)