Looking backward, events appear almost inevitable. Causes line up neatly, consequences seem logically connected, and historians can draw arrows from one development to the next. The narrative becomes intelligible.

Yet, the path of history is not obvious while it unfolds. It constantly defies the expectations of those living inside it.

Human beings are storytelling creatures. We look for coherence. We want to believe that history follows identifiable trajectories. But history rarely behaves that way.

In 1988, few analysts believed the Soviet Union would disappear within three years. Yet by 1991 it had collapsed with astonishing speed.

In early 2011, a street vendor’s self-immolation in Tunisia triggered protests that cascaded across the Middle East, toppling governments that had ruled for decades.

For years Israeli intelligence monitored Hamas and understood its intentions. Yet the scale and coordination of the........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)