Can US–China LNG Trade Reach a New Balance?

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The Trump-Xi meeting in May could reopen dialogue on LNG trade, but any reset is likely to favor flexible, market-driven energy flows over fixed purchase commitments.

President Donald Trump’s planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May 2026 stands out as a particularly noteworthy development, especially when considered against the backdrop of the prolonged diplomatic gap between the two leaders. Following their last face-to-face meeting at the G20 Osaka Summit in 2019, the absence of direct high-level engagement for several years has created a significant zone of uncertainty not only in political relations but also in global energy markets. This rupture has generated a more visible impact in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, which remains highly sensitive to geopolitical trust due to its long-term contract structures and pricing mechanisms.

LNG trade between the United States and China represents one of the most striking examples of energy geopolitics over the past decade. One of the most notable features of this relationship is that LNG trade between the two countries has effectively come to a standstill twice, first during the 2018 to 2019 trade war period and second during the renewed tensions of 2025 to 2026. The year 2019 stands out as a period in which the US-China LNG trade declined to near-zero levels. China imported less than 0.3 million tons of LNG from the United States during this period, with this volume accounting for well below one percent of its total LNG imports. The primary driver of this collapse was not technical or market-based factors, but rather the trade war and tariff measures. Tariffs of up to 25 percent imposed by China on US LNG rendered American gas commercially uncompetitive and brought trade flows to a near halt. During this period, China largely met its LNG demand through alternative suppliers such as Australia and Qatar.

The Phase One Agreement and the Resumption of Energy Interdependence

The signing of the Phase One Trade Agreement in 2020 rapidly transformed this........

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