The May shootout at the Texas corral: RINO meets MAGA 

Nationally, in November, Democrats must net four seats to edge Republicans out of the majority in the U.S. Senate. They are storming a steep hill. 

The key to it all may be Texas.

Last election, Trump carried Texas by roughly 14 points. No Democrat has won an election for U.S. Senate since 1988. So this should be a gimme for the Republican candidate. 

But 2026 is not 2024. Trump has become damaged goods. The RealClear Polling average, which takes the average of over 14 pollsters, indicates that his overall favorability is only at 44 percent, up just slightly from 43 percent prior to his State of the Union address and the Iran war. And a January Gallup survey found 47 percent of U.S. adults now identify with or lean toward the Democrats, while 42 percent lean Republican. That gives Democrats the edge in party affiliation for the first time since Trump’s first term. 

Texas could, quite surprisingly, be the deciding state in the Democrats’ quest for Senate control. The seat held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is very much in play. Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, is said to be unpopular in the state. Last week, he narrowly finished first in a bitter primary contest against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). But since Cornyn fell short of 50 percent of the vote, he must now must face Paxton again in a runoff election in May. 

Smelling blood, Democrats have focused on the state like Santa Ana storming the Alamo. The eventual winner of the Republican nomination will face the young, charismatic state Rep. James Talarico (D). Talarico coasted to a handy primary........

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