Pakistan’s electricity crisis is widely misdiagnosed as a problem of insufficient generation capacity. In reality, it is a structural failure of energy delivery, where installed capacity does not translate into a reliable, real-time electricity supply. Despite an installed capacity exceeding 46,000 MW, the country continues to experience prolonged load shedding in several regions.

The core contradiction lies in the gap between theoretical capacity and actual system availability, which in stress conditions often falls to 12,000–20,000 MW, depending on fuel supply, hydrology, transmission constraints, and financial liquidity.

This divergence is not accidental but systemic. A significant portion of Pakistan’s thermal fleet, estimated at around 26,000 MW, is not fully dispatchable due to dependence on imported fuels such as LNG, coal, and furnace oil. This exposes the system to external price shocks and supply disruptions, while simultaneously making domestic generation contingent on circular debt repayments and liquidity availability.

When LNG shipments tighten or become expensive, large blocks of capacity effectively exit the system. In such conditions, installed capacity becomes a nominal figure rather than a functional resource. The recent volatility in global LNG markets, including supply constraints from major exporters such as QatarEnergy, has repeatedly demonstrated how external shocks can instantly translate into domestic electricity shortages.

The crisis is further intensified by a severe geographical imbalance in Pakistan’s generation and consumption structure. The bulk of large-scale thermal generation assets are located in the southern corridor—Port Qasim, Hub, and adjoining industrial zones—whereas the highest demand concentration lies in Punjab’s industrial and agricultural belt in the north.

This spatial mismatch creates a structural transmission burden. Although Pakistan’s National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) operates high-voltage corridors, the northbound evacuation capacity remains insufficient to fully transfer surplus southern generation. As a result, electricity congestion emerges not at the generation level but at the transmission interface, producing simultaneous surplus and shortage within the same national grid.

Hydropower, which ideally should function as the........

© The Friday Times