What happens with the U.S.-Venezuela oil deal announced last week after the 2028 presidential election is decided? That’s the question many in the U.S. oil and gas industry — including executives at some of the biggest companies — are asking now, even as the contracts cementing the deal are being signed by both governments.

In a story published by the Wall Street Journal on Sept. 4, former executive at Houston-based Apache Corporation Shad Frazier captures the key concern:

“No one wants to go down there and take over a mess and then get blamed for the mess,” Frazier says, “The worry is, when you have a change in U.S. administration in two years, what happens then? No one likes to invest into chaos.”

Let’s think about that:

If the winner in 2028 is a Republican named JD Vance or Marco Rubio — the two leading contenders today for the GOP nomination according to polls – then there would be little if any change to the U.S. commitment to the deal. The status quo would continue. That would almost certainly be the case should another contender — say, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — emerge from the pack as the........

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