Yemen’s Houthis have launched a major offensive in recent days. They’ve rapidly swept down the Red Sea coast, seizing strategically important positions and giving the Iran-backed rebel group the potential to control traffic through this vital waterway.

This could cut off Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil – which was already seriously hampered by Iran’s attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the country.

Drone attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq on September 11 forced Riyadh to order the closure of its vital east-west oil pipeline, which has been funnelling oil to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has since claimed to have shot down a Houthi drone close to the holy city of Mecca, home of Islam’s most sacred shrine – something the Houthis have denied.

These are significant and dangerous developments in the current Middle East crisis – and by extension, in global security. Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan, having already been raised to the status of a major non-Nato ally by the US.

Whether such ties will draw any of these allies into a major military confrontation is not yet clear. But the situation shows how perilous this conflict has become, six months after the US and Israel launched what they thought would be a relatively short confrontation with Iran.

How this conflict might escalate........

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