At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) three and independents three. This leaves the Liberals four short of the 18 needed for a majority.

The independents are the re-elected left-wing Kristie Johnston, former Labor MP David O'Byrne and anti-salmon farm campaigner Craig Garland.

Before the distribution of preferences began after the postal receipt deadline passed last Tuesday, the Liberals had been expected to win 15 seats, but lost a seat to Garland in Braddon.

This means the JLN alone is not sufficient to get the 18 votes needed for a majority. The Liberals will need JLN and at least one independent, but all three independents have some left-wing views. Labor has already conceded the election.

At the 2021 election, the Liberals had won 13 of the then 25 seats, Labor nine, the Greens two and an independent one, for a bare Liberal majority. In May 2023, two Liberal MPs had defected to the crossbench and eventually caused this early election; neither was re-elected.

Tasmania uses five electorates that each return seven members. The quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%. I previously explained the Hare-Clark system that is used in Tasmanian elections.

Read more: Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority

Electors vote for candidates, not parties, and this results in parties losing votes to........

© The Conversation