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Adrian Beaumont

Adrian Beaumont

The Conversation

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Labor slumps in Newspoll to a tie with Coalition, with Albanese also down

A national Newspoll, conducted June 3–7 from a sample of 1,232, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, a two-point gain for the Coalition...

monday 10

The Conversation

Adrian Beaumont

Labor slightly helped by Victorian and WA draft federal redistributions

The electoral commission today released draft boundaries from a federal redistribution of Victoria and Western Australia. In WA, the new seat of...

31.05.2024 30

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor takes a hit in Resolve polls in Queensland and Victoria

The Queensland state election will be held in October. A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from February to May from a...

22.05.2024 60

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor and Albanese gain in post-budget Newspoll, but other polls don’t look as rosy

A national Newspoll, conducted after the May 14 budget from a sample of over 1,200 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a one-point...

20.05.2024 50

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Adrian Beaumont

UK Tories perform badly at local elections; Labor still narrowly ahead in Australian polls

I covered the May 2 United Kingdom local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The Blackpool South parliamentary byelection was also held, at...

06.05.2024 30

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor facing heavy defeat in Queensland, but faring better in federal polls

The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample of 1,092 people, gave...

26.04.2024 30

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor maintains narrow Newspoll lead but drops in other polls

A national Newspoll, conducted April 15–18 from a sample of 1,236, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll in late March....

22.04.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Liberals will have difficulty forming government after final Tasmanian results

At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN)...

07.04.2024 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Difficult for Liberals to form government after final Tasmanian results

At the March 23 Tasmanian state election, the Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats, Labor ten, the Greens five, the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN)...

07.04.2024 30

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Adrian Beaumont

Federal Essential poll the worst for Labor this term; SA Labor gains Dunstan at byelection

A national Essential poll, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal of a...

28.03.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor drops to a 51–49 lead in Newspoll; Labor chooses to concede Tasmanian election

A national Newspoll, conducted March 18–22 from a sample of 1,223, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous...

25.03.2024 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Liberals will win most seats in Tasmanian election, but be short of a majority

Tasmania has five electorates that each return seven members using the proportional Hare-Clark system, for a total of 35 seats. A quota is one-eighth...

23.03.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Liberals likely to easily win most seats in Tasmania; huge swings to LNP at Queensland byelections

The Tasmanian state election is this Saturday. The 35 total lower house seats will be elected in five seven-member electorates using the proportional...

22.03.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls; UK Labour far ahead as election approaches

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties’ nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of...

19.03.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Dire polls for Labor in Tasmania and Queensland with elections upcoming

The Tasmanian state election is on March 23. A uComms poll for The Australia Institute, conducted March 4–5 from a sample of 1,174, gave the...

15.03.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Albanese’s ratings surge in YouGov poll; Tasmanian poll suggests difficult to form government

A national YouGov poll, conducted February 24 to March 5 from a sample of 1,539, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since an early February YouGov...

08.03.2024 20

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor holds Dunkley but slumps in two national polls; Liberals lead in Tasmania

With all ordinary booths in Dunkley having primary vote counts and 51% of enrolled votes counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting a final Labor margin...

02.03.2024 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor steady in Newspoll but down in Resolve; it’s tied in Queensland

A federal Newspoll, conducted February 19–23 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll three weeks...

26.02.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Jacqui Lambie Network could win balance of power at Tasmanian election; Labor lead steady in federal polls

Tasmanian Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff today announced the Tasmanian election would be held on March 23, more than a year early. The election was...

14.02.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor’s Newspoll lead unchanged since December as 62% support stage three changes

A national Newspoll, conducted January 31 to February 3 from a sample of 1,245, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in...

04.02.2024 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Trump wins New Hampshire primary and closes in on Republican nomination; Labor gains in Australian polls

Former President Donald Trump has defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary with a...

24.01.2024 9

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Adrian Beaumont

Freshwater national poll holds steady at a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus

A national Freshwater poll for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a Freshwater poll for The...

15.01.2024 8

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50–50 tie

A national Newspoll, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous...

18.12.2023 8

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Adrian Beaumont

US elections 2024: a Biden vs Trump rematch is very likely, with Trump leading Biden

The United States general election will be held on November 5 2024. In early 2024, there are Democratic and Republican presidential nominating...

13.12.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it’s close in Queensland

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady...

06.12.2023 10

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Adrian Beaumont

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