How effectively middle powers can work together to sustain a rules-based order will depend on how they manage their different relations with the US, China and Russia.

As the United States, China and Russia pursue more unilateral and power-driven foreign policies, attention has turned to the role of middle powers. While cooperation among these states offers a potential counterweight, its effectiveness is constrained by differing regional threat perceptions and continued reliance on the United States. The ability of middle powers to sustain a rules-based order will depend on building flexible networks while managing dependence on great powers.

The United States, China and Russia have openly pursued control of their own spheres of influence. Donald Trump’s administrations have advanced an ‘America First’ agenda aimed at preserving US predominance in the western hemisphere. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, annexed Crimea in 2014 and launched a military invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In China, the consolidation of power under Xi Jinping since 2012 has been accompanied by an expansion of the country’s maritime presence from the South and East China Seas into the western Pacific.

Each power shows little interest in upholding the rules-based liberal international order. Against this backdrop, attention has turned to the role of middle powers. At the World Economic Forum in Davos on 20 January 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called on middle powers to act with greater unity, warning that “we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition”. At a time when international rules are eroding, he argued that middle........

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