A major new Lancet commission identifies nuclear war and malicious AI among threats capable of causing human extinction this century, with climate breakdown posing an escalating longer-term danger.

Obliteration of the entire human species is now a distinct possibility, according to the latest medical report card on our state of health worldwide.

The latest diagnosis from The L__ancet Commission on 21st century global threats to health identifies 17 immediate threats, two of which could end in human extinction within the present century and a third not long after.

It is the first international scientific study to project, based on current data, the likelihood of a human wipeout within the present century. Others, so far, have mainly treated it as a dangerous risk, though many scientists had sounded personal warnings based on their own research.

The threats referred to by the Lancet Commission include nuclear war, malicious use of AI and biological weapons, pandemics, obesity, child malnutrition, antimicrobial resistance, conflict, inequality, bad education and cuts to international health aid. Nuclear war and malicious AI could wipe out humanity before 2100, while climate breakdown constitutes a real extinction risk in subsequent centuries.

The commission warned that all these threats will interact and magnify one another over time, meaning they must be tackled collectively, rather than singly.

Moreover, it looked not only at how many people are likely to die as a result of the 17 threats, but also at the crippling cost of mass disability resulting from all causes.

“Potential causes of human extinction can be loosely grouped into exogenous threats such as an asteroid impact – and anthropogenic (i.e. man-made) threats such as war or a catastrophic physics accident. In all cases, an outcome as extreme as human extinction would require events or developments that either have been of very low probability........

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