The Latest Economic Numbers Are Brutal for Trump

There’s an increasing chance that the economy will be in recession come the midterm elections this fall.

The likelihood is growing that the economy will be in recession when voters cast their ballots in the midterm elections. Goldman Sachs on Thursday raised its 12-month estimation of a recession’s probability from 20 percent to 25 percent, and on Friday morning Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, put the likelihood at 34 percent within the next nine and a half months. Even if we don’t see an outright recession, Trump’s economic policies are plainly failing.

The most immediate economic problem is the Iran war, which on Friday morning had oil trading at about $100 per barrel, even after the Treasury Department rather pathetically lifted sanctions on Russian oil for tankers already at sea. In effect, war with Iran is compelling Trump to partially surrender to Russia in the Ukraine war—even as Russia helps Iran target U.S. forces in the Middle East—and it isn’t even working. Oil prices are still going through the roof. The Democrats’ attack ad writes itself.

Economic indicators were starting to go south even before the war started on February 28. According to a revised Commerce Department estimate released Friday morning, gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.7 percent from October through December 2025, down from 4.4 percent from July through September. Previously the Commerce Department knew GDP growth had dropped (the first estimate was 1.4 percent), but the growth figure turned out to be half........

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