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Mohamed Fahmy: A new threat to oil markets emerges in the Iran war

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22.07.2026

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Mohamed Fahmy: A new threat to oil markets emerges in the Iran war

Houthis target Saudi shipping routes, as U.S. and Iran step up attacks

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Ten days into one of the most dangerous phases of the U.S.-Iran war, the killing of four American soldiers has dramatically expanded the conflict, opening new fronts and new threats to oil markets, and raising the spectre of a prolonged war of attrition across the Middle East.

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Among the dead were a teenage female soldier, a young serviceman who had planned to marry his fiancée after completing his deployment, and a twenty year old female, all killed when Iranian strikes hit a military base used by American forces in Jordan on July 17. Two days later, a father of two died while disposing of a downed attack drone in northern Iraq. Their deaths brought the U.S. military death toll to 18 since the war began on Feb. 28, while nearly 100 American service members have been wounded during the past two weeks of escalating Iranian reprisals, according to the Pentagon.

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Nothing shakes a nation at war more than the sight of flag-draped coffins returning home from the battlefield. President Donald Trump understands that political reality, which is why he has vowed that Iran will pay “many times over” for the deaths of U.S. soldiers. His warning signals that every American casualty raises the risk of an even more devastating escalation.

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