The Reserve Bank of India’s Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (March 2026 round) shows perceived inflation to be 7.2 per cent. This is more than double the official Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based reading of 3.2 per cent for February.

The CPI was revamped recently to better represent true inflation. The RBI survey also shows households expect prices to rise 8.5 per cent over the next three months and 8.8 per cent over the year. The gap between official data and ground-level perception of reality has rarely been more politically charged.

Meanwhile, India is caught in a double oil squeeze. The first is fuel, which was at $115 per barrel in March, driven by the West Asia conflict. Likewise, transport and power costs are up, as are prices of practically all manufactured goods.

The RBI itself acknowledges that its baseline assumption of $85 per barrel for the year could easily be breached if hostilities resume. The ceasefire between the US and Iran, announced earlier this month, is fragile. Peace talks have failed. If the conflict heats up again, the price of crude oil will surge and so will inflation.

The second oil is what Indians use for cooking. India imports nearly 90 per cent of its edible oils — palm from Indonesia and Malaysia, soya from Argentina and Brazil, sunflower from Russia and Ukraine. The West Asia crisis has rattled global commodities markets and sent vegetable oil prices surging alongside crude.

Retail edible oil prices rose by Rs 1–4 per kg in just one week. India’s palm oil imports fell 19........

© National Herald