It might come as news to many, but Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said recently that the next sovereignty referendum campaign is already underway.

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Although he credits Prime Minister Mark Carney for kicking it off with a speech last month that offered a rather rosy version of Quebec history at odds with the PQ’s narrative of grievance, this sounds like wishful thinking on St-Pierre Plamondon’s part.

The PQ leader would have to win a Quebec election before he holds any vote on independence. And that suddenly looks a lot more difficult than it has in a while, with not one but two new rivals soon to be confirmed.

While the PQ has been topping the charts for months, a Léger survey for Le Journal de Montréal showed just over a week ago that 39 per cent of respondents have a positive opinion of Coalition Avenir Québec leadership front-runner Christine Fréchette, who is vying to replace outgoing premier François Legault. That’s up 17 points from a month earlier and within striking distance of St-Pierre Plamondon, who has an approval rating of 43 per cent. And Charles Milliard, the likely next Quebec Liberal leader, saw his popularity climb by seven points from December, although it still sits at just 19 per cent.

St-Pierre Plamondon is suddenly facing stiffer competition to win the next general election, scheduled for October, before he can trigger any referendum during a first mandate as promised.

But like it or not, “referendum” is a word Quebecers — and indeed all Canadians — may have to get used to hearing again, what with a petition also gathering signatures in Alberta to force a plebiscite on separating the oil-rich western province from Canada.

Quebec’s forthcoming election campaign will bring........

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