On 17th February, addressing the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem, former prime minister Naftali Bennett delivered a line that has since become shorthand for a shift in Israeli strategic thinking: “Turkey is the new Iran.” He accused Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of seeking to “encircle Israel.” He charged Ankara and Doha with nourishing a Muslim Brotherhood axis modeled on Iran’s proxy network, this time anchored by a “hostile Sunni axis with nuclear Pakistan.” Coming from a man positioning himself for an electoral comeback this fall, the remarks could be dismissed as campaign theatre. They are not isolated.

Bennett’s framing echoes a document few outside Israel’s defense establishment have read closely. In January 2025, the Nagel Committee — a government-commissioned panel on long-term defense strategy — concluded that a Turkish-aligned Syria could pose a threat that “could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat.” That assessment has since filtered out of classified planning and into open political discourse, lending institutional weight to what might otherwise read as a politician’s bluster. Former defence minister Yoav Gallant added his own escalation on 27th February, urging Western states to reconsider arms sales to Ankara despite Turkey’s standing as NATO’s second-largest army.

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