Sample a set of recent conversations across America’s northeast corridor.
In Cambridge, Massachusetts, a first-generation United States (US) citizen of Haitian origin spoke of her everyday struggles. She had three kids. She did two jobs, yet was struggling to pay rent and meet her expenses and was incredulous at suggestions that prices were decreasing. She was upset that the US was supporting wars in both Ukraine and Israel (“why are we wasting money?”). And she was furious that “illegal” immigrants were making their way when those who came through legal channels had to wait for years. For all of this — the economy, wars and immigration — she blamed Joe Biden and has decided to vote for Donald Trump. The fact that Trump is facing criminal charges didn’t deter her; instead, the Haitian-American voter saw it as evidence that the system was “persecuting Trump” just like it was persecuting people like her.
In New York City’s Upper East Side, a young Uber driver, whose family was originally from the Dominican Republic, traced his political evolution. He had warned his friends not to vote for Trump in 2016 (“he is a nut”), but had now changed his mind. Under Biden, he believed, there had been a surge in crime (it has actually dipped) and America had got entangled in wars. He saw Biden as “too old” (he is 81; Trump is 77). And while he was ambivalent about January 6, illegal immigration rankled with him. Texas’s decision to send migrants to NYC, among other Democrat-run cities, has meant that challenges at the southern border are no longer a distant but an immediate and visible challenge. Since spring 2022, NYC has processed over 160,000 asylum seekers and a stretched city administration is taking care of 68,000 of them, hardening anti-immigration sentiment even among those sceptical of Republican narratives.
In southeast Washington DC, a man from Sierra Leone, who had migrated to America in 2008 and was now a citizen, was looking forward to voting — for Trump. He couldn’t understand why the US was supporting Ukraine and Israel (“Biden fights too many wars”), and rejected the argument that Trump may be an even stronger supporter of Israel’s war. Grocery costs and rent had risen and he blamed Biden. And as a person of African descent and Muslim faith, he saw all White politicians, Democrat or Republican, as pretty much the same on racism.
A good barometer of the political mood is to check, first, whether a party’s base has remained loyal and then see whether a party has actually expanded that base. The conversations are telling, for they show that Trump may not just be maintaining his older White working class and rural base, but may well be expanding his appeal — or offsetting losses of independents and moderate Republicans worried about his democratic record with new gains from the most unlikely of constituencies. Few expect recent American citizens of Haitian, Dominican and West African roots to be Trump’s supporters, but as polls and anecdotal evidence increasingly suggest, a segment of Hispanics and Blacks are slowly shifting allegiances away from the Democrats.
But beyond the racial demographics, the conversations reveal the power of Trump’s narrative, often fuelled by misinformation, and the depth of disillusionment with Biden’s administration in an election year. In a strange twist, Trump is both the order candidate — promising law enforcement, a stable economy, and an America distant from messy wars — and disruption candidate — promising the hollowing out of the federal government, a militant anti-immigrant project, attack on institutions, a reset of America’s external priorities. Different groups choose to hear different messages.
But while Trump’s surge is clear, the story has many dimensions.
One, the current public mood reflects just the current moment, it acts as a feedback loop for campaigns, but it has little predictive value. No one knows what will happen by November 2024, just as few knew last year that Trump would be back. Events will radically shape the mood.
Two, Trump’s legal challenges are serious. Colorado and Maine’s decisions to cast him as ineligible for the ballot are helping him play the victim card and the Supreme Court will probably strike it down. But when a frontrunner for a party’s nomination is facing four criminal indictments and may even be convicted before polling day while being on the ballot, there are just too many imponderables. The non-Trump Republican coalition is rallying around Nikki Haley, though, of course, Trump remains way ahead at the moment.
Three, while Biden’s domestic electoral coalition is fractured and external challenges are looking intractable, never underestimate the man who first became a Senator in 1973 and has consistently defied pundits. He has a perception challenge more than a performance challenge. He has a solid governance record on pandemic recovery and has managed, along with the Fed, a rare equilibrium between inflation, employment and growth. This is already reflected in a drop in interest rates and prices and a spike in markets and the economic sentiment may change. He has passed pathbreaking legislation on infrastructure, climate and manufacturing. All of this has created and sustained political constituencies.
Biden has two other advantages — anger against Republicans over the abortion verdict and shared fears about Trump’s authoritarianism. Israel has cost him the enthusiasm (and possibly support) of the Left and Muslims but has also won him Jewish support. Biden told Xi Jinping not to believe the polls and that he will be back next year. That could still happen.
And finally, America is essentially a 47%-47% country, with the electorate almost equally split between the two parties. Most states are solidly Blue or Red. So, both regionally and demographically, every election boils down to six or seven swing states and a few hundred thousand swing votes. A limited set of voters in states such as Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania will end up playing a decisive role in who becomes president.
While an interplay of all these variables will shape the battle of 2024, it is advantage Donald Trump for now.
The views expressed are personal
There is a Trump hawa in America
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02.01.2024
Sample a set of recent conversations across America’s northeast corridor.
In Cambridge, Massachusetts, a first-generation United States (US) citizen of Haitian origin spoke of her everyday struggles. She had three kids. She did two jobs, yet was struggling to pay rent and meet her expenses and was incredulous at suggestions that prices were decreasing. She was upset that the US was supporting wars in both Ukraine and Israel (“why are we wasting money?”). And she was furious that “illegal” immigrants were making their way when those who came through legal channels had to wait for years. For all of this — the economy, wars and immigration — she blamed Joe Biden and has decided to vote for Donald Trump. The fact that Trump is facing criminal charges didn’t deter her; instead, the Haitian-American voter saw it as evidence that the system was “persecuting Trump” just like it was persecuting people like her.
In New York City’s Upper East Side, a young Uber driver, whose family was originally from the Dominican Republic, traced his political evolution. He had warned his friends not to vote for Trump in 2016 (“he is a nut”), but had now changed his mind. Under Biden, he believed, there had been a surge in crime (it has actually dipped) and America had got entangled in wars. He saw Biden as “too old” (he is 81; Trump is 77). And while he was ambivalent about January 6, illegal immigration rankled with him. Texas’s decision to send migrants to NYC, among other Democrat-run cities, has meant that challenges at the southern border are no........
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